Economic reality could be catching up with market sentiment, with several Fed officials firmly stating that inflation remains the key concern and that significant tightening was needed to tame it. Friday’s strong labour-market data also supports this. …

Following on from last week’s second consecutive negative US GDP print and the Fed meeting, the focus on economic data is set to rise this week with ISM/PMI numbers and labour-market data (including June job openings on Tuesday and July NFPs and unemployment Friday). Key points from the July Fed…

This week sees the Fed meeting and a raft of key economic data, ranging from US Q2 GDP (‘wen recession, ser?’) and durable goods to inflation-related measures like June PCE and Q2 ECI. The market expects a 75bps hike at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, but there will be a lot of…

Data last week, especially June retail sales and CPI, were indicative of healthy demand and elevated inflation, but the market reaction to these datapoints, in our view, was more interesting including: equities and digital assets rallying after initially falling gains for commodities, including gold longer-dated UST yields and breakeven inflation…

Bulls on parade Friday’s market reaction to strong labour-market data was interesting for a few reasons: US equity futures fell shortly after the data release, but the market ended the day close to flat Digital assets followed a similar pattern Commodities rose Bond yields rose This pricing action implies “rates…

Global markets have shifted their attention from inflation- to recession-risks, so this week’s economic data could prove useful in this assessment. The US labour market is in focus and key datapoints include May job openings (Wednesday) and on Friday we get June non-farm payrolls, unemployment and average hourly earnings.

Bye bye “soft landing” Policymakers like Fed Chair Powell last week are starting to admit that a “soft landing” may not be possible as it seeks to tame inflation. Moreover, signals of a hard landing are coming from the falls in oil and copper prices as well as the NY…

The SNB was the biggest story of last week — a tightening nobody anticipated and the potential selling of its substantial holdings of US equities. It also signals that global central banks are now competitive hawks, rushing to tighten. Meanwhile, the Fed’s performance at its June meeting was unconvincing. Last…

When doves die A 50bps hike is priced in for Wednesday’s FOMC meeting. Friday’s May CPI print has also brought about suggestions of a 75–100bps hike this week, but we believe this is unlikely. Instead, the FOMC quarterly projections and the post-meeting press conference are of more interest. …